* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 25 30 36 42 51 59 62 60 57 52 48 43 V (KT) LAND 20 25 30 36 42 51 59 62 60 57 52 48 43 SHEAR (KTS) 7 8 11 15 17 17 14 22 15 20 10 17 7 SHEAR DIR 23 342 321 313 307 310 316 332 328 326 305 333 327 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.5 25.5 24.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 157 156 154 151 149 145 140 131 121 110 99 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -52.1 -51.0 -51.7 -50.6 -51.8 -50.9 -52.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 8 7 5 4 4 3 3 0 500-300 MB RH 62 64 66 67 61 61 59 63 65 62 58 63 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -14 -8 -10 -2 0 3 9 2 850 MB VORT -10 -12 -11 -9 -10 7 2 21 42 32 22 14 29 LAND (KM) 533 580 640 701 786 902 977 1074 1098 1098 1057 1013 894 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 17.0 17.9 19.2 20.7 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 106.4 107.9 109.3 110.7 113.3 115.5 117.4 118.8 119.9 120.6 121.3 121.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 636 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 103 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 24. 32. 36. 36. 34. 29. 26. 21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 16. 22. 31. 39. 42. 40. 37. 32. 28. 23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.37 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 138.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 4.69 Prob of RI= 47.2% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)