* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 42 41 40 39 38 38 42 43 43 40 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 42 35 33 34 33 33 36 38 37 34 SHEAR (KTS) 24 30 35 44 49 51 54 51 48 42 37 38 40 SHEAR DIR 253 240 230 241 247 243 254 257 256 251 245 240 236 SST (C) 24.5 22.1 18.0 16.2 18.5 16.4 12.8 14.6 13.7 14.5 14.2 12.7 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 106 92 79 75 80 76 71 73 72 73 73 71 69 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 55 57 62 64 64 60 58 53 59 57 59 57 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 22 24 23 54 1 2 0 8 -2 -1 4 9 850 MB VORT 31 50 48 24 21 27 -1 29 63 85 86 143 238 LAND (KM) 241 157 217 2 -44 -33 249 804 1388 1048 558 356 538 LAT (DEG N) 38.8 40.4 42.0 43.7 45.4 47.9 50.0 51.8 53.1 54.6 56.2 59.2 63.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.5 69.7 67.8 65.2 62.6 56.9 50.2 42.8 34.5 26.1 17.8 11.4 6.4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 35/ 17 CX,CY: 10/ 14 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 756 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -11. -19. -25. -31. -36. -41. -44. -45. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 26. 33. 39. 48. 52. 53. 49. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -28. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -6. -5. -6. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -8. -7. -7. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 36.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.15 SST (C) : Value: 19.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 36.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.09 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 1.97 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)