* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 50 61 72 83 89 95 98 100 101 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 50 61 72 83 89 95 98 100 101 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 6 0 4 2 4 3 9 3 9 5 4 SHEAR DIR 342 13 40 340 314 34 222 173 234 215 250 135 220 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 12 500-300 MB RH 65 65 58 61 62 54 52 50 47 44 47 44 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 850 MB VORT 24 19 20 23 16 16 20 31 26 10 11 2 11 LAND (KM) 717 702 650 612 579 558 561 596 627 686 715 685 679 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.3 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 54.1 54.8 55.5 56.0 56.5 57.3 57.7 58.0 58.3 58.8 59.0 59.2 59.3 HEAT CONTENT 82 79 88 88 86 95 104 118 121 116 108 95 91 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 634 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 27. 37. 48. 54. 59. 63. 67. 69. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 20. 31. 42. 53. 59. 65. 68. 70. 71. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 5.48 Prob of RI= 52.7% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)