* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 53 61 66 72 77 82 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 53 61 66 72 77 60 57 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 12 11 12 8 10 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 283 274 255 266 278 291 297 280 9999 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 12 13 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 43 46 50 50 48 44 43 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 4 4 5 4 3 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 3 15 24 19 13 21 6 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 244 283 275 262 269 333 358 317 239 145 54 -24 23 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.8 23.3 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.9 67.8 68.7 69.5 71.3 72.9 74.6 76.3 78.1 79.6 81.1 82.3 HEAT CONTENT 78 82 74 64 57 57 75 75 90 88 109 9999 113 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 744 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 26. 35. 40. 46. 51. 56. 60. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 28. 36. 41. 47. 52. 57. 60. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 4.56 Prob of RI= 21.0% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)