* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 86 85 82 79 74 71 67 65 63 62 60 V (KT) LAND 85 87 86 85 82 79 74 71 67 65 63 62 60 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 13 15 17 11 16 12 13 9 8 3 17 SHEAR DIR 121 103 85 97 93 111 133 149 169 147 155 193 203 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 149 146 142 138 135 132 130 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -51.3 -52.2 -51.1 -51.8 -50.8 -51.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 48 45 46 44 50 51 53 46 42 43 48 44 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 3 1 4 4 3 0 5 850 MB VORT 67 71 77 83 93 115 144 161 156 149 162 146 146 LAND (KM) 2048 1968 1887 1800 1713 1566 1449 1308 1163 1062 1014 882 686 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.9 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 137.2 138.0 138.8 139.6 140.4 141.6 142.5 143.6 144.8 145.6 145.9 146.9 148.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 24 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -19. -22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.29 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 66.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.29 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 4.10 Prob of RI= 29.4% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)