* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 92 91 89 81 74 68 62 57 51 46 43 V (KT) LAND 90 92 92 91 89 81 74 68 62 57 51 46 43 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 13 8 10 18 14 15 10 19 16 20 15 SHEAR DIR 334 350 359 6 334 21 15 10 12 32 39 47 72 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 147 145 143 141 139 136 132 130 129 127 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -52.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 54 57 58 60 61 65 64 63 62 60 64 61 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 5 850 MB VORT 52 40 33 35 43 41 65 62 88 89 99 73 77 LAND (KM) 1869 1901 1934 1961 1990 2041 2075 2120 2168 2212 2250 2278 2250 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.1 126.6 127.2 127.7 128.7 129.5 130.4 131.3 132.2 132.9 133.4 133.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 670 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 34 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 1. -5. -12. -18. -24. -30. -36. -42. -45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 1. -1. -9. -16. -22. -28. -33. -39. -44. -47. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.42 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 57.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.19 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.73 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 4.09 Prob of RI= 29.1% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)