* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 35 41 45 48 47 46 45 44 42 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 35 41 45 48 47 46 45 44 42 SHEAR (KTS) 7 12 13 12 14 21 22 26 26 30 15 15 10 SHEAR DIR 20 6 3 351 346 359 21 23 13 20 38 16 342 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.4 26.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 149 150 150 151 151 149 141 127 114 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 500-300 MB RH 68 69 68 68 74 71 73 71 73 76 78 72 71 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 0 -5 -6 -2 1 -4 -6 3 1 14 7 850 MB VORT -7 -15 -11 -11 3 35 86 105 92 61 66 52 45 LAND (KM) 1252 1272 1299 1335 1374 1466 1555 1589 1552 1418 1236 1044 884 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.5 14.7 16.4 18.5 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.3 116.2 117.0 117.8 119.3 120.4 121.0 121.0 120.6 120.1 119.8 119.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 602 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 80 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 23. 24. 23. 23. 22. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 25. 28. 27. 26. 25. 24. 22. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.36 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 87.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.98 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 4.34 Prob of RI= 34.1% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)