* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 34 38 46 53 55 54 51 48 45 39 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 34 38 46 53 55 54 51 48 45 39 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 16 14 15 17 19 19 21 24 9 16 19 SHEAR DIR 347 333 332 322 315 326 337 330 335 335 302 319 283 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 26.9 25.5 24.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 156 154 153 152 150 147 144 136 121 106 94 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 500-300 MB RH 68 66 65 66 66 64 66 65 70 69 72 68 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -12 -4 -7 -7 3 8 19 -5 850 MB VORT -23 -21 -23 -22 -13 10 11 34 44 35 50 41 31 LAND (KM) 589 653 712 799 902 997 1099 1183 1201 1131 1032 927 807 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 16.0 17.4 19.2 21.4 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 107.5 109.1 110.5 111.9 114.3 116.3 117.9 119.0 119.8 120.3 120.9 121.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 608 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 85 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 31. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 27. 30. 31. 29. 26. 23. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 18. 26. 33. 35. 34. 31. 28. 25. 19. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.65 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 136.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.89 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 4.35 Prob of RI= 34.4% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)