* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 40 39 39 38 37 36 36 35 29 20 V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 36 38 36 35 34 33 33 32 26 17 SHEAR (KTS) 29 36 45 47 50 48 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 237 238 248 249 255 258 261 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 23.0 19.0 16.7 18.9 18.0 15.0 14.2 15.1 14.4 14.6 12.9 12.0 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 97 81 76 81 79 74 73 74 73 73 71 71 69 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -53.3 -53.0 -52.1 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 52 54 60 59 60 58 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 26 27 50 35 25 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 46 37 20 8 14 15 7 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 195 240 32 3 53 11 504 1042 1393 856 540 355 534 LAT (DEG N) 40.0 41.7 43.3 44.9 46.4 48.4 49.8 51.2 53.0 55.2 57.9 60.7 63.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.8 67.5 65.2 62.4 59.5 53.1 46.3 39.0 31.0 23.1 15.3 9.6 5.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 18 CX,CY: 12/ 14 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 670 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -27. -32. -37. -42. -45. -46. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 7. 11. 19. 27. 34. 38. 44. 47. 45. 39. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -20. -29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -15. -21. -30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 41.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.02 SST (C) : Value: 19.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 32.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.05 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.13 Scaled RI index= 1.47 Prob of RI= 1.7% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)