* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 61 72 81 88 94 97 99 101 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 61 72 81 88 94 97 99 101 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 1 2 1 6 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 9 45 158 308 337 224 256 220 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 63 58 60 60 57 53 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 11 15 21 17 10 20 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 710 667 630 606 586 582 585 617 647 721 699 675 653 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 54.8 55.4 55.9 56.3 56.7 57.2 57.6 57.8 58.3 58.7 59.1 59.3 59.6 HEAT CONTENT 81 89 91 89 91 96 107 115 121 113 103 92 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 593 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 27. 38. 46. 53. 59. 62. 66. 69. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 19. 31. 42. 51. 58. 64. 67. 69. 71. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.99 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 5.32 Prob of RI= 47.5% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)