* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 52 61 66 72 79 85 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 52 61 66 72 79 85 87 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 11 11 10 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 274 255 264 286 272 321 257 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 48 50 50 46 48 43 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 5 4 4 2 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 13 19 16 10 22 7 20 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 290 279 272 288 313 357 324 275 187 123 38 11 39 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.6 23.1 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 67.4 68.2 69.0 69.8 70.6 72.2 73.8 75.4 77.1 78.7 80.2 81.6 82.8 HEAT CONTENT 76 68 58 57 54 68 72 85 85 102 110 93 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 810 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 24 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 36. 41. 46. 52. 58. 62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 36. 41. 47. 54. 60. 62. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.90 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.12 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 4.26 Prob of RI= 14.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)