* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 91 89 87 81 74 69 65 61 57 54 53 V (KT) LAND 90 92 91 89 87 81 74 69 65 61 57 54 53 SHEAR (KTS) 9 16 17 13 13 12 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 79 86 84 69 114 142 139 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 149 145 141 137 133 130 128 126 124 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.1 -52.2 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 48 47 46 52 54 55 58 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 -3 1 2 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 64 75 91 102 98 109 136 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1960 1895 1829 1759 1688 1551 1434 1303 1173 1053 954 824 675 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.6 17.4 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 138.1 138.8 139.4 140.0 140.6 141.7 142.6 143.6 144.6 145.5 146.3 147.3 148.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -9. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 1. -1. -3. -9. -16. -21. -25. -29. -33. -36. -37. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.24 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 60.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.23 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 3.92 Prob of RI= 26.0% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)