* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 116 116 114 108 94 83 73 64 57 50 44 40 V (KT) LAND 110 116 116 114 108 94 83 73 64 57 50 44 40 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 10 12 14 13 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 349 355 9 24 31 356 33 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 144 142 140 137 133 130 128 125 122 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.0 -51.5 -52.0 -50.7 -52.1 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 56 58 62 66 64 63 63 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 0 -2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 30 34 47 39 26 51 70 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1925 1955 1986 2010 2029 2053 2089 2120 2162 2191 2222 2232 2222 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 126.3 126.9 127.4 127.9 128.3 129.1 129.9 130.7 131.5 132.2 132.9 133.4 133.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 619 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 8. 13. 15. 14. 10. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 4. -1. -14. -25. -34. -43. -50. -57. -64. -68. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 6. 4. -2. -16. -27. -37. -46. -53. -60. -66. -70. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 30.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.45 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.36 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.36 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 36.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.89 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.80 Scaled RI index= 3.72 Prob of RI= 22.4% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)