* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * TWELVE 09/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 39 42 45 46 45 44 42 39 36 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 39 42 45 46 45 44 42 39 36 SHEAR (KTS) 10 14 13 14 16 21 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 1 355 358 8 13 16 28 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.0 25.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 149 149 150 151 151 150 146 137 124 114 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.2 -51.7 -52.1 -50.6 -52.3 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 71 66 65 68 67 68 72 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -3 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -21 -6 -9 -10 10 64 109 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1266 1291 1323 1368 1415 1529 1617 1595 1507 1361 1229 1115 1038 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.7 12.6 13.1 14.0 15.5 17.0 18.6 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.9 116.8 117.6 118.3 119.7 120.8 121.1 121.0 120.8 120.7 120.8 121.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 623 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 86 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 18. 19. 18. 17. 14. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 20. 19. 17. 14. 11. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TWELVE 9/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 87.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.96 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.07 Scaled RI index= 4.13 Prob of RI= 29.9% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)