* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 32 36 43 48 50 50 48 46 43 40 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 32 36 43 48 50 50 48 46 43 40 SHEAR (KTS) 11 16 14 14 17 20 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 329 327 320 319 326 328 345 337 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.1 24.9 23.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 153 153 151 150 146 140 127 115 102 92 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -52.1 -50.8 -52.1 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 66 62 63 64 63 62 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -6 -4 -2 -6 -7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -20 -22 -18 -5 11 22 37 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 698 763 845 936 1035 1105 1169 1160 1116 1028 990 897 852 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.5 15.5 16.8 18.5 20.1 22.0 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 109.1 110.5 111.7 112.9 114.9 116.7 117.8 118.8 119.6 120.5 121.2 122.2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 558 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 60 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 27. 29. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 26. 24. 22. 18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 28. 30. 30. 28. 26. 23. 20. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.60 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.24 Scaled RI index= 4.12 Prob of RI= 29.7% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)