* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 44 44 44 44 44 45 50 55 53 46 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 44 43 38 38 38 39 44 49 48 41 SHEAR (KTS) 36 39 49 49 51 52 48 43 40 39 38 37 34 SHEAR DIR 244 246 251 252 251 257 262 259 249 232 215 207 204 SST (C) 19.4 17.2 19.0 18.3 16.8 13.4 15.4 13.8 14.2 13.6 12.4 10.4 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 82 77 81 79 76 72 74 72 73 72 71 70 69 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -53.6 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -50.5 -49.4 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 60 63 62 64 63 60 56 60 57 59 54 53 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 17 30 48 36 18 18 -9 -1 -2 20 9 1 1 850 MB VORT 45 18 15 8 11 5 27 68 117 198 261 250 222 LAND (KM) 241 65 20 35 19 227 755 1300 1144 721 437 484 704 LAT (DEG N) 41.5 43.1 44.7 46.1 47.4 49.5 50.9 52.7 54.8 57.3 60.1 62.6 64.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 64.9 62.3 59.5 56.6 50.2 43.1 35.7 27.6 19.8 12.1 8.0 6.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 21 CX,CY: 16/ 13 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 673 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 86 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -28. -34. -38. -44. -46. -47. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 8. 12. 22. 30. 37. 43. 52. 57. 57. 53. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -29. -32. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 3. 6. 4. -2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 5. 3. -4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 45.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 18.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 29.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.02 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.21 Scaled RI index= 1.67 Prob of RI= 1.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)