* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * SEVENTEEN 09/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 61 68 73 79 82 86 88 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 61 68 73 79 82 86 88 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 7 13 11 14 11 23 12 16 7 14 7 SHEAR DIR 304 263 278 282 271 270 255 268 287 285 283 292 268 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 61 61 61 64 59 59 57 58 60 54 59 54 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 3 3 4 6 8 5 3 0 -2 850 MB VORT 15 16 14 18 24 35 49 55 59 54 62 62 77 LAND (KM) 727 704 689 694 710 755 717 620 536 508 517 543 592 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.9 18.2 19.3 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 54.9 55.4 55.9 56.4 56.9 57.9 58.9 59.9 61.0 61.7 62.2 62.7 63.3 HEAT CONTENT 90 94 93 96 105 108 98 89 85 83 77 68 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 651 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 27. 33. 39. 44. 49. 54. 57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 31. 38. 43. 49. 52. 56. 58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SEVENTEEN 9/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.49 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 4.86 Prob of RI= 31.9% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)