* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 54 63 68 73 75 77 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 54 63 68 73 75 77 76 SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 13 11 10 8 5 10 12 17 22 27 21 SHEAR DIR 236 240 254 242 248 273 273 271 255 265 267 282 290 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.4 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 154 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 500-300 MB RH 43 44 44 44 45 45 48 45 42 43 41 43 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 4 4 4 4 1 0 3 5 2 2 -2 -5 850 MB VORT 22 13 14 18 22 15 27 19 29 16 35 36 40 LAND (KM) 256 251 273 305 343 338 322 253 166 27 123 236 360 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.2 24.5 24.9 25.4 26.0 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 69.4 70.2 71.0 71.8 73.5 75.2 77.1 79.0 80.9 82.8 84.6 86.5 HEAT CONTENT 67 59 55 54 62 77 86 91 64 79 33 35 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 735 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 37. 42. 47. 50. 52. 53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 38. 43. 48. 50. 52. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 29.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 4.37 Prob of RI= 16.2% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)