* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 88 87 86 79 73 67 63 60 57 53 50 V (KT) LAND 90 90 88 87 86 79 73 67 63 60 57 53 50 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 13 6 6 14 14 15 10 11 11 21 22 SHEAR DIR 87 84 64 52 92 132 141 163 151 148 193 196 212 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 147 145 142 138 135 132 129 127 125 123 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.3 -51.9 -51.0 -51.9 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 49 48 50 50 53 56 54 48 42 43 40 41 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 1 6 2 4 0 1 5 8 0 6 4 850 MB VORT 83 108 107 101 108 138 127 134 134 148 137 137 116 LAND (KM) 1853 1771 1688 1613 1538 1416 1241 1134 1076 970 795 663 569 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.8 14.6 15.2 15.6 16.2 17.1 18.0 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 139.1 139.9 140.6 141.3 141.9 142.9 144.3 145.1 145.5 146.3 147.7 148.7 149.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 272/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 567 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -21. -25. -28. -32. -37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -2. -3. -4. -11. -17. -23. -27. -30. -33. -37. -40. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.42 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 58.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.21 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.97 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 3.92 Prob of RI= 26.0% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)