* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 87 80 75 66 61 57 53 50 46 42 39 V (KT) LAND 100 94 87 80 75 66 61 57 53 50 46 42 39 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 15 15 17 12 10 8 11 11 13 15 16 SHEAR DIR 340 353 11 22 26 28 10 13 26 39 64 87 79 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 142 139 136 133 130 127 124 121 119 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 500-300 MB RH 55 58 62 66 64 61 57 52 51 56 50 58 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 9 2 0 850 MB VORT 51 55 37 27 25 78 86 68 52 101 83 81 72 LAND (KM) 1976 2004 2030 2042 2054 2097 2128 2154 2174 2198 2237 2187 2160 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.7 128.2 128.6 129.0 130.0 130.8 131.4 132.0 132.7 133.6 134.1 134.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 53 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 110 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -25. -30. -34. -39. -43. -48. -53. -56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -13. -20. -25. -34. -39. -43. -47. -50. -54. -58. -61. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 44.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.07 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.88 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.51 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.53 Scaled RI index= 2.85 Prob of RI= 6.5% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)