* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * LIDIA 09/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 47 50 53 54 54 52 50 47 43 39 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 47 50 53 54 54 52 50 47 43 39 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 17 15 19 18 23 19 22 21 28 21 24 SHEAR DIR 7 3 360 356 8 4 9 20 21 19 45 64 39 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 149 149 149 148 147 145 140 136 133 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 66 64 66 67 64 64 61 64 67 71 65 76 76 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -7 -10 -1 0 -1 -4 -1 0 0 0 2 850 MB VORT -8 -5 -7 -3 20 61 83 95 85 115 114 103 38 LAND (KM) 1294 1301 1312 1320 1332 1373 1398 1378 1363 1353 1352 1328 1289 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.1 116.6 117.2 117.7 118.7 119.7 120.1 120.3 120.8 121.6 121.8 121.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 644 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 85 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 20. 20. 19. 17. 13. 9. 5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 12. 8. 4. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LIDIA 9/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.06 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 87.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.97 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.04 Scaled RI index= 3.85 Prob of RI= 24.7% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)