* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/17/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 33 37 42 47 48 47 44 40 35 27 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 33 37 42 47 48 47 44 40 35 27 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 17 17 17 19 26 18 18 15 13 15 21 SHEAR DIR 344 339 343 335 339 337 359 346 325 297 327 292 316 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.3 25.9 24.4 22.9 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 152 151 150 148 140 125 110 94 78 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 4 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 68 66 68 65 64 65 66 71 67 65 56 52 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) -7 -4 -5 -8 -2 0 1 3 1 10 0 -2 -4 850 MB VORT -13 -14 -13 -2 12 32 45 52 31 17 14 -1 -18 LAND (KM) 850 919 994 1064 1121 1165 1130 1059 966 816 742 632 649 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.5 14.4 15.6 17.4 19.5 21.8 24.2 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.1 112.1 112.9 113.6 114.9 115.9 116.5 117.2 117.8 118.8 119.9 121.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 478 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 85 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 27. 29. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 22. 18. 14. 6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 27. 28. 27. 24. 20. 15. 7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/17/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.05 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.85 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.74 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 4.08 Prob of RI= 29.0% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)