* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 42 42 45 46 47 50 56 61 61 51 V (KT) LAND 45 42 41 37 38 40 42 42 45 51 57 56 46 SHEAR (KTS) 42 48 48 52 52 55 51 48 43 38 40 36 33 SHEAR DIR 245 250 251 250 255 261 262 258 247 228 212 205 201 SST (C) 17.0 19.2 18.0 16.6 14.5 13.9 14.1 13.9 14.0 12.6 11.3 9.0 8.5 POT. INT. (KT) 77 82 79 76 73 72 73 72 72 71 70 69 69 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 -49.9 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 59 61 61 62 58 55 59 55 58 55 58 58 60 MO FLX (M/S/D) 32 34 20 25 23 -1 2 0 -4 18 8 2 1 850 MB VORT 24 20 8 9 4 11 54 76 147 221 248 234 180 LAND (KM) 54 24 63 0 23 505 1072 1401 925 666 496 699 945 LAT (DEG N) 43.1 44.7 46.3 47.6 48.8 50.6 52.1 53.9 56.1 58.8 62.0 64.7 67.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.1 62.2 59.2 56.2 53.1 46.7 38.9 31.4 24.0 17.2 10.6 7.3 6.0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 26 CX,CY: 18/ 18 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 633 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 109 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -26. -32. -35. -40. -42. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 6. 11. 17. 29. 38. 45. 51. 60. 65. 65. 59. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. -24. -29. -33. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 13. 18. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 18. 16. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -3. -3. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 16. 16. 6. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 48.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 17.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 32.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.05 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 1.73 Prob of RI= 2.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)