* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * SEVENTEEN 09/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 53 62 70 77 82 86 88 88 89 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 53 62 70 77 82 86 88 88 89 SHEAR (KTS) 5 9 10 12 14 13 16 15 13 15 12 15 19 SHEAR DIR 258 290 304 287 265 289 253 293 268 307 258 290 256 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 61 59 59 60 59 59 58 58 58 57 57 54 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 3 0 0 4 1 2 8 0 -4 -10 850 MB VORT 14 12 12 20 29 33 48 56 63 62 82 81 91 LAND (KM) 736 718 707 706 712 751 709 603 540 538 586 631 675 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.9 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.5 56.0 56.5 57.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 60.8 61.3 61.5 62.0 62.8 HEAT CONTENT 96 93 95 95 108 109 102 92 86 82 78 78 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 585 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 43 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 36. 42. 46. 49. 51. 53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 18. 27. 35. 42. 47. 51. 53. 53. 54. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SEVENTEEN 9/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 5.28 Prob of RI= 46.2% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)