* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 54 62 68 71 74 75 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 54 62 68 71 74 75 74 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 12 11 13 5 10 5 13 14 19 24 21 SHEAR DIR 246 258 252 244 246 247 238 261 238 264 247 272 279 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.3 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 152 152 152 155 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 11 12 11 11 10 11 9 12 500-300 MB RH 45 45 46 48 46 48 45 47 45 45 45 41 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 4 3 4 4 0 3 0 3 -2 2 -2 -7 850 MB VORT 21 18 20 27 24 29 29 26 24 21 40 31 22 LAND (KM) 244 268 300 329 346 317 280 178 3 150 273 334 200 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.2 26.8 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 70.2 71.1 72.0 72.8 74.6 76.6 78.8 81.0 83.2 85.1 87.1 89.3 HEAT CONTENT 61 56 54 63 75 84 88 48 71 31 31 55 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 23. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 37. 42. 47. 49. 51. 51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 37. 43. 46. 49. 50. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 4.29 Prob of RI= 15.3% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)