* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 91 91 88 83 77 72 66 62 56 50 44 V (KT) LAND 90 91 91 91 88 83 77 72 66 62 56 50 44 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 8 9 15 10 12 10 7 8 17 26 33 SHEAR DIR 91 79 55 85 107 127 162 157 172 217 198 213 215 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 146 143 138 135 130 128 126 124 122 121 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.0 -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 49 52 56 55 57 52 51 48 46 42 41 44 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 2 15 2 -3 850 MB VORT 94 105 94 99 104 132 131 137 138 122 124 106 112 LAND (KM) 1809 1738 1668 1595 1522 1386 1241 1097 993 898 829 718 597 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.6 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.8 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 139.3 140.0 140.6 141.2 141.8 142.8 144.0 145.1 145.9 146.6 147.1 148.0 149.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 591 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 93 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -22. -26. -32. -38. -45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -24. -28. -34. -40. -46. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 57.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 3.99 Prob of RI= 27.4% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)