* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 96 90 85 76 68 62 57 52 47 43 40 V (KT) LAND 105 101 96 90 85 76 68 62 57 52 47 43 40 SHEAR (KTS) 10 15 18 16 10 13 10 8 8 12 15 15 19 SHEAR DIR 336 5 24 30 29 351 18 9 47 65 98 93 88 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 142 141 136 132 129 127 126 124 124 124 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -50.5 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.4 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 57 61 61 61 60 54 52 50 52 52 52 56 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -5 0 0 -1 -10 0 -3 3 -2 3 5 0 850 MB VORT 45 35 24 31 55 83 96 68 90 101 90 73 76 LAND (KM) 2021 2044 2063 2080 2097 2128 2156 2177 2190 2228 2208 2154 2121 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.3 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.4 128.9 129.4 129.8 130.8 131.6 132.2 132.6 133.2 134.0 134.5 134.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 687 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 69 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -23. -29. -33. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -12. -16. -24. -31. -37. -42. -48. -53. -58. -62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -15. -20. -29. -37. -43. -48. -53. -58. -62. -65. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.28 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 38.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.91 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 3.50 Prob of RI= 18.4% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)