* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * LIDIA 09/18/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 46 51 53 56 55 52 47 43 39 37 35 V (KT) LAND 35 41 46 51 53 56 55 52 47 43 39 37 35 SHEAR (KTS) 12 17 21 22 24 28 25 30 29 28 27 22 19 SHEAR DIR 8 6 6 12 6 14 37 40 49 39 63 45 49 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 149 149 149 149 149 149 148 148 148 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -50.4 -52.0 -50.6 -52.6 -51.4 -52.6 -51.8 -53.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 67 68 68 68 72 69 66 75 68 75 75 81 75 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 0 4 -1 4 5 6 9 3 0 2 6 850 MB VORT 13 20 17 31 36 46 58 55 40 29 -21 -19 25 LAND (KM) 1338 1346 1354 1358 1363 1365 1354 1356 1352 1348 1329 1326 1332 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.7 14.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.4 116.5 116.8 117.0 117.5 117.9 118.2 118.4 118.7 119.2 119.4 119.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 643 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 95 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 11. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 16. 18. 21. 20. 17. 12. 8. 4. 2. 0. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LIDIA 9/18/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.90 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.81 Scaled RI index= 4.91 Prob of RI= 57.5% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)