* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 55 63 70 76 80 82 81 80 78 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 55 63 70 76 80 82 81 80 78 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 14 17 18 18 22 15 24 17 26 20 33 SHEAR DIR 293 314 299 281 282 275 273 281 286 291 286 285 286 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 61 56 61 61 61 62 62 66 63 60 58 54 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 5 11 10 -1 -4 -15 850 MB VORT 12 13 24 29 34 45 46 56 56 68 62 81 71 LAND (KM) 730 728 730 740 758 815 748 677 663 692 724 780 855 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.2 17.4 18.4 19.6 21.1 22.3 23.2 24.2 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.3 55.6 55.9 56.3 56.7 57.7 58.6 59.4 60.1 60.6 61.1 61.6 62.1 HEAT CONTENT 95 94 94 93 98 106 96 90 80 68 64 58 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 584 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 39 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 22. 28. 33. 37. 39. 38. 38. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 23. 30. 36. 40. 42. 41. 40. 38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 4.62 Prob of RI= 22.5% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)