* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EIGHTEEN 09/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 56 66 70 75 79 83 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 56 66 70 75 79 83 83 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 11 12 8 7 8 8 12 9 14 12 8 SHEAR DIR 254 252 235 238 251 217 241 215 240 245 248 267 260 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.3 29.8 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 500-300 MB RH 46 46 49 47 46 44 44 46 44 44 45 47 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 7 7 6 7 3 6 4 4 0 1 0 6 850 MB VORT 32 32 36 34 27 28 29 31 34 43 47 22 2 LAND (KM) 166 195 219 188 171 125 59 33 99 213 290 330 391 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.2 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 72.1 73.2 74.2 75.2 77.2 79.5 81.6 83.6 85.6 87.7 89.9 92.3 HEAT CONTENT 75 76 74 73 86 89 107 82 36 68 68 34 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 722 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 19. 24. 26. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 29. 39. 43. 49. 53. 57. 59. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 41. 45. 50. 54. 58. 58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EIGHTEEN 9/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 30.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.95 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.37 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.34 Scaled RI index= 4.25 Prob of RI= 14.8% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)