* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 86 83 77 73 69 64 60 55 50 43 V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 86 83 77 73 69 64 60 55 50 43 SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 10 12 12 9 4 5 9 9 16 25 38 SHEAR DIR 74 60 86 103 116 118 160 144 162 197 200 215 217 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 143 141 137 135 131 129 127 124 121 119 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.1 -51.8 -52.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.9 -50.9 -51.5 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 51 53 54 59 60 52 52 46 46 41 49 49 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 2 1 0 0 -3 1 -1 9 11 9 19 850 MB VORT 88 81 88 93 118 111 122 118 133 115 116 92 80 LAND (KM) 1716 1653 1590 1529 1468 1328 1197 1086 996 888 773 680 639 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.0 18.1 19.6 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 140.1 140.6 141.1 141.6 142.1 143.3 144.4 145.3 146.0 146.8 147.6 148.3 149.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 573 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 56 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -31. -37. -45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -21. -26. -30. -35. -40. -47. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 54.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.17 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 3.67 Prob of RI= 21.5% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)