* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 96 91 87 79 72 66 61 56 50 45 41 V (KT) LAND 105 101 96 91 87 79 72 66 61 56 50 45 41 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 16 10 7 8 6 6 1 14 16 20 18 SHEAR DIR 7 26 33 44 347 347 6 41 155 103 124 114 124 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 141 139 136 131 128 125 124 123 123 123 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -50.7 -51.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 62 64 62 59 54 50 44 44 43 43 47 54 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 9 10 0 1 850 MB VORT 17 12 14 26 54 84 104 92 120 117 113 93 90 LAND (KM) 2067 2082 2099 2109 2120 2144 2165 2197 2230 2219 2194 2107 1974 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.1 129.5 130.0 130.4 131.1 131.8 132.6 133.3 133.9 134.1 134.9 136.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 626 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 71 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -24. -30. -34. -37. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -23. -29. -35. -40. -46. -52. -58. -62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -14. -18. -26. -33. -39. -44. -49. -55. -60. -64. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.28 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.24 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 37.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.66 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 3.33 Prob of RI= 15.3% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)