* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * LIDIA 09/18/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 43 42 40 38 35 33 31 31 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 43 42 40 38 35 33 31 31 SHEAR (KTS) 12 18 19 15 21 27 25 34 25 32 25 21 11 SHEAR DIR 11 7 14 15 358 10 35 47 49 54 69 65 71 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 150 150 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -50.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 500-300 MB RH 69 67 65 67 71 67 74 77 82 78 76 70 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 2 1 -1 2 -1 3 0 0 1 7 2 850 MB VORT 40 35 45 48 44 39 62 51 10 -68 -36 3 52 LAND (KM) 1308 1316 1324 1328 1333 1334 1338 1343 1354 1372 1383 1399 1415 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.3 14.5 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.1 116.3 116.6 116.8 117.3 117.8 118.0 118.3 118.8 119.5 120.0 120.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 659 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 89 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LIDIA 9/18/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.02 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.87 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 3.63 Prob of RI= 20.8% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)