* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 61 68 74 81 85 89 88 87 84 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 61 68 74 81 85 89 88 87 84 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 16 17 19 21 23 15 18 18 24 29 29 SHEAR DIR 305 294 274 280 285 271 288 281 306 269 298 266 272 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 59 61 62 60 59 67 65 62 57 56 57 53 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 4 3 9 -1 -23 -5 -4 850 MB VORT 15 26 33 37 46 55 53 69 64 93 89 100 91 LAND (KM) 750 752 761 777 801 802 715 655 638 693 795 880 961 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.0 18.2 19.4 20.5 21.6 22.9 24.3 25.5 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.5 55.9 56.3 56.8 57.2 58.1 59.0 59.9 60.7 61.2 61.5 62.0 62.7 HEAT CONTENT 95 91 93 96 102 107 92 86 76 70 56 56 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 587 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 27. 33. 37. 41. 41. 40. 39. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 29. 36. 40. 44. 43. 42. 39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 30.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.93 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.40 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 4.61 Prob of RI= 22.2% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)