* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EIGHTEEN 09/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 55 64 72 77 80 82 83 82 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 55 64 72 77 80 82 83 82 SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 15 13 6 9 5 10 3 13 13 13 13 SHEAR DIR 262 248 246 272 268 209 182 205 218 207 206 209 222 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 29.8 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 14 13 12 13 12 12 11 12 10 12 7 500-300 MB RH 47 48 45 46 48 40 42 38 39 38 33 34 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 8 11 8 0 1 0 0 0 2 4 4 2 850 MB VORT 19 22 16 10 23 16 17 24 28 41 23 17 9 LAND (KM) 222 238 202 189 187 136 67 104 191 244 323 396 385 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.5 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.9 23.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 71.7 72.9 74.1 75.2 76.2 78.6 81.1 83.3 85.4 87.9 90.8 92.7 94.0 HEAT CONTENT 69 72 72 86 94 99 79 39 66 61 29 46 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 679 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 41. 46. 50. 52. 53. 53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 34. 42. 47. 50. 52. 53. 52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EIGHTEEN 9/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 30.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.95 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.15 Scaled RI index= 4.43 Prob of RI= 17.6% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)