* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 50 56 60 62 63 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 50 56 60 62 63 64 65 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 12 13 13 8 7 6 10 14 16 15 17 SHEAR DIR 343 328 318 329 326 334 341 359 11 43 47 61 62 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 154 155 159 162 164 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 500-300 MB RH 57 53 55 55 57 56 55 49 46 49 46 42 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 60 59 55 36 23 13 -11 -10 -4 -2 -43 -42 -64 LAND (KM) 1535 1541 1554 1519 1440 1306 1180 1060 924 830 789 804 663 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.5 38.4 39.4 40.4 42.3 44.3 46.1 48.0 50.0 51.9 53.7 55.6 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 23 24 24 39 44 43 63 69 89 87 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 626 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 39. 41. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 25. 31. 35. 37. 38. 39. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.35 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.3% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)