* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 107 101 95 84 75 66 58 52 46 40 36 V (KT) LAND 115 112 107 101 95 84 75 66 58 52 46 40 36 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 10 12 11 4 7 12 18 14 18 24 16 SHEAR DIR 21 20 28 33 31 58 67 121 95 87 103 118 117 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 142 141 138 135 132 131 129 125 125 124 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -50.9 -51.3 -51.9 -50.7 -51.5 -50.8 -51.3 -50.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 500-300 MB RH 67 62 60 60 59 51 48 45 50 53 50 51 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -3 -3 -2 0 1 3 2 5 3 10 12 850 MB VORT 21 22 35 64 71 99 96 114 121 105 80 65 64 LAND (KM) 2110 2138 2168 2190 2213 2254 2282 2311 2245 2160 2049 1958 1890 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.5 17.3 17.7 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 129.2 129.7 130.2 130.7 131.1 132.0 132.7 133.3 133.9 134.6 135.5 136.3 136.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 560 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -22. -29. -35. -39. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -4. -5. -4. -5. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -16. -25. -34. -43. -52. -58. -65. -72. -76. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -8. -14. -20. -31. -40. -49. -57. -63. -68. -75. -79. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.29 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.26 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 27.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 3.69 Prob of RI= 21.9% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)