* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * LIDIA 09/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 45 43 41 37 34 31 29 26 25 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 44 45 43 41 37 34 31 29 26 25 SHEAR (KTS) 15 19 20 18 20 24 30 28 30 28 28 24 15 SHEAR DIR 19 23 27 19 11 22 26 46 38 61 53 58 42 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 149 149 148 148 148 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -50.9 -51.7 -52.2 -50.8 -52.3 -51.4 -52.8 -51.7 -53.1 -52.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 500-300 MB RH 70 69 68 70 73 68 75 73 72 72 77 74 74 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 0 -1 2 3 4 -1 0 5 3 0 0 850 MB VORT 33 41 37 39 38 49 57 22 -13 -41 -29 -21 7 LAND (KM) 1269 1269 1269 1269 1269 1272 1273 1277 1284 1302 1321 1354 1383 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.4 115.6 115.8 116.0 116.4 116.9 117.4 117.9 118.4 119.0 119.7 120.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 703 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 95 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -10. -13. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LIDIA 9/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.19 Scaled RI index= 3.66 Prob of RI= 21.3% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)