* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * THIRTEEN 09/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 47 49 48 41 33 25 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 47 49 48 41 33 25 18 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 8 9 15 12 18 10 22 14 23 17 21 SHEAR DIR 321 330 333 311 321 313 327 316 320 316 324 321 322 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.0 26.0 24.8 23.8 22.8 22.1 21.6 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 148 146 137 126 114 103 93 86 80 78 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.8 -50.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 62 62 59 59 61 58 56 54 52 46 41 30 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 0 0 1 0 -4 6 1 -3 -12 -6 -2 850 MB VORT 18 22 21 23 31 42 26 33 14 36 17 29 11 LAND (KM) 932 933 945 961 985 988 998 1005 971 949 983 1057 1082 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.4 17.6 18.7 20.3 21.7 23.1 24.2 25.4 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.9 114.8 115.6 116.4 117.9 119.4 120.8 121.9 122.9 124.0 125.3 126.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 629 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 81 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 20. 19. 14. 7. -1. -8. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 17. 22. 24. 23. 16. 9. 0. -7. -15. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) THIRTEEN 9/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.42 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 4.20 Prob of RI= 31.3% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.0%)