* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/18/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 39 38 35 28 22 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 39 38 35 28 22 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 13 16 20 12 21 16 23 12 16 6 18 SHEAR DIR 311 321 310 297 298 290 298 281 306 306 318 283 307 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 26.3 25.1 24.0 23.2 22.4 22.0 21.9 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 145 142 129 117 105 97 89 84 83 84 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -50.5 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 61 57 54 53 50 49 56 52 48 38 36 35 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -2 3 0 2 0 0 5 -2 -8 -6 -3 -8 850 MB VORT 5 13 19 28 27 28 27 62 46 68 71 79 70 LAND (KM) 809 799 799 817 852 882 945 990 1019 1072 1154 1257 1303 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.8 20.0 21.3 22.3 23.2 23.9 24.6 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.7 113.7 114.8 115.8 117.9 119.9 121.7 123.1 124.4 125.7 127.1 128.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 683 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 71 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 7. 1. -5. -12. -16. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 13. 10. 3. -3. -9. -14. -20. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/18/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.04 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.21 Scaled RI index= 3.11 Prob of RI= 11.2% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)