* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 60 66 73 77 81 83 83 82 80 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 56 60 66 73 77 81 83 83 82 80 SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 21 22 20 24 16 23 12 27 23 33 35 SHEAR DIR 287 279 287 282 277 281 279 280 275 277 263 276 254 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 157 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 60 61 59 60 63 67 67 62 63 57 59 55 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 -3 -1 0 -4 1 -1 5 0 -6 -2 -19 850 MB VORT 30 35 32 44 48 47 61 72 95 100 119 108 140 LAND (KM) 775 795 820 838 864 792 738 733 753 816 896 992 1101 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.8 20.0 21.4 22.6 23.9 25.1 26.4 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 55.7 56.0 56.3 56.8 57.3 58.2 58.9 59.5 60.1 60.6 61.0 61.5 62.0 HEAT CONTENT 90 90 92 101 106 103 93 75 63 54 56 43 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 599 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 80 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 22. 27. 32. 35. 37. 37. 35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 15. 21. 28. 32. 36. 38. 39. 37. 35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.92 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.67 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 5.15 Prob of RI= 41.9% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)