* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EIGHTEEN 09/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 46 56 65 73 78 82 83 83 82 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 46 56 65 73 78 82 83 83 82 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 11 5 7 9 6 8 10 8 10 11 13 SHEAR DIR 235 246 262 228 211 241 199 244 230 232 208 214 215 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.3 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 12 11 9 10 500-300 MB RH 45 46 47 47 41 41 41 40 36 36 35 38 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 8 6 -1 0 1 1 0 1 6 5 1 3 850 MB VORT 19 13 11 25 29 29 30 41 40 35 18 7 9 LAND (KM) 223 216 186 186 160 99 22 95 250 244 303 445 330 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.7 23.7 23.5 24.1 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.4 73.6 74.8 75.9 76.9 79.1 81.8 84.1 86.3 88.7 91.5 93.2 94.0 HEAT CONTENT 68 72 79 94 91 105 82 49 75 51 36 54 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 629 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 34. 42. 47. 51. 52. 53. 53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 16. 26. 35. 43. 48. 52. 53. 53. 52. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EIGHTEEN 9/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 30.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.97 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.16 Scaled RI index= 4.48 Prob of RI= 18.9% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)