* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 90 89 87 80 73 66 59 53 47 41 33 V (KT) LAND 90 91 90 89 87 80 73 66 59 53 47 41 33 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 13 10 10 13 10 11 11 17 17 26 40 SHEAR DIR 95 110 120 133 149 172 166 176 216 207 189 210 225 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 138 136 133 130 128 126 125 123 120 119 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.3 -51.7 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -52.2 -51.2 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 58 56 59 52 47 50 44 40 36 41 39 39 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 -2 1 1 3 8 5 8 12 0 7 850 MB VORT 99 105 111 106 106 124 113 127 106 105 91 82 68 LAND (KM) 1604 1527 1449 1374 1299 1158 1053 940 865 791 740 633 561 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.8 18.7 20.3 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 140.9 141.6 142.2 142.9 143.5 144.7 145.5 146.4 147.0 147.5 147.8 148.8 150.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 544 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 89 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -20. -26. -31. -37. -43. -49. -57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -1. -3. -10. -17. -24. -31. -37. -43. -49. -57. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.42 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.18 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.12 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.92 Scaled RI index= 3.68 Prob of RI= 21.6% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)