* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 105 96 88 73 61 53 47 42 38 33 31 V (KT) LAND 115 112 105 96 88 73 61 53 47 42 38 33 31 SHEAR (KTS) 14 9 15 18 15 14 14 13 20 17 20 22 19 SHEAR DIR 44 27 31 34 43 51 62 87 91 112 102 117 110 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 142 141 140 137 135 132 130 129 128 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 500-300 MB RH 64 62 59 58 55 50 47 49 51 54 55 52 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -1 -4 -1 0 4 4 10 0 0 2 -2 850 MB VORT 17 37 49 55 75 93 77 105 98 123 94 102 105 LAND (KM) 2139 2168 2198 2221 2244 2277 2312 2311 2227 2134 2041 1959 1876 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.1 130.5 131.0 131.4 132.1 132.8 133.4 134.1 134.9 135.7 136.4 137.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 559 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -28. -34. -39. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -12. -18. -30. -41. -50. -58. -65. -70. -76. -79. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -10. -19. -27. -42. -54. -62. -68. -73. -77. -82. -84. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.19 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.26 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 27.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.66 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 3.42 Prob of RI= 16.8% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)