* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * LIDIA 09/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 40 39 36 31 25 22 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 40 39 36 31 25 22 20 19 18 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 10 15 18 19 16 17 17 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 3 320 319 311 290 312 313 343 2 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.3 25.9 25.0 24.5 23.6 23.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 145 140 125 116 111 101 100 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -50.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 68 63 60 61 50 50 53 55 45 43 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 2 0 0 0 0 -12 -2 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT 34 24 15 27 30 54 47 101 128 158 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1153 1034 922 931 960 967 1070 1172 1309 1442 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.7 16.0 16.7 17.4 19.0 19.8 20.1 20.8 20.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.7 114.9 116.0 117.1 119.3 121.2 122.9 125.4 127.0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 765 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 91 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) LIDIA 9/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.21 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.68 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 3.65 Prob of RI= 21.1% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)