* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MAX 09/18/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 47 52 56 59 59 55 45 35 25 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 42 47 52 56 59 59 55 45 35 25 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 8 14 16 16 15 15 21 19 21 20 22 SHEAR DIR 334 327 329 327 335 304 329 313 333 305 327 312 299 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 26.7 25.6 24.6 23.6 22.6 21.8 21.4 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 146 143 133 122 112 101 91 82 78 75 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 62 56 61 61 57 58 60 58 54 42 34 29 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 4 0 -4 -18 -7 -4 850 MB VORT 24 23 28 34 37 57 33 35 21 24 23 11 9 LAND (KM) 957 975 1002 1026 1059 1049 1054 1038 963 932 989 1035 1014 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.8 19.0 20.4 22.0 23.5 24.9 26.1 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.0 115.9 116.8 117.6 119.1 120.4 121.3 122.1 123.0 124.4 125.6 126.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 576 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 78 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 21. 21. 18. 9. 1. -10. -19. -28. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 24. 20. 10. 0. -10. -19. -28. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MAX 9/18/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.38 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.40 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.69 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.29 Prob of RI= 33.1% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)