* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * PHILIPPE 09/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 79 82 86 90 92 93 93 90 85 82 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 79 82 86 90 92 93 93 90 85 82 SHEAR (KTS) 21 23 24 22 23 22 22 21 23 23 31 30 41 SHEAR DIR 277 289 287 285 280 289 274 293 253 271 244 248 242 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 159 152 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -53.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 500-300 MB RH 58 57 60 63 65 70 69 66 58 55 50 49 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -4 -1 0 -2 8 2 19 8 5 0 2 -16 850 MB VORT 25 25 35 44 46 52 69 62 102 102 112 120 126 LAND (KM) 822 842 867 893 843 780 777 816 879 945 1014 1133 1311 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.6 20.9 22.4 23.8 25.1 26.2 27.7 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.9 56.3 56.7 57.2 57.7 58.4 58.8 59.2 59.6 60.2 60.7 61.2 61.6 HEAT CONTENT 91 96 101 106 105 90 74 58 54 57 51 27 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 611 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 30 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 22. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 24. 21. 18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 14. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. 25. 20. 17. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) PHILIPPE 9/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.30 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 29.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.91 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 4.69 Prob of RI= 24.9% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)