* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * RITA 09/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 63 69 80 89 96 100 101 99 96 92 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 63 69 80 89 96 100 101 99 96 92 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 4 7 10 1 7 4 10 7 3 4 16 SHEAR DIR 240 252 239 182 209 295 181 226 221 246 152 187 196 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 162 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 11 10 11 8 11 500-300 MB RH 44 45 47 41 38 42 42 41 41 41 47 43 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 1 0 2 -13 850 MB VORT 12 17 32 33 34 39 42 37 43 15 5 -19 -2 LAND (KM) 304 264 251 213 182 100 117 233 266 330 436 353 216 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.8 23.9 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.6 25.4 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 74.2 75.5 76.7 77.9 80.4 83.4 85.9 87.9 89.9 92.0 93.7 95.1 HEAT CONTENT 73 78 91 89 82 82 43 73 66 37 21 40 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 492 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 3. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 6. 4. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 34. 42. 49. 54. 56. 55. 52. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 18. 24. 35. 44. 51. 55. 56. 54. 51. 47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) RITA 9/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 30.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.96 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 4.51 Prob of RI= 19.6% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)