* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * JOVA 09/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 85 81 73 64 57 50 42 37 33 31 V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 85 81 73 64 57 50 42 37 33 31 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 9 9 13 13 14 12 16 18 20 17 16 SHEAR DIR 97 132 138 152 164 182 182 184 202 196 185 192 199 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 135 133 130 129 127 126 124 123 122 121 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 58 58 54 51 50 49 40 39 34 32 31 31 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 3 4 7 0 2 850 MB VORT 81 98 90 89 109 112 115 123 101 84 87 73 62 LAND (KM) 1552 1482 1412 1329 1247 1113 1031 956 878 809 756 694 638 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 141.2 141.8 142.4 143.1 143.8 144.9 145.6 146.2 146.8 147.3 147.7 148.2 148.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 540 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 134 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -15. -22. -29. -37. -44. -50. -54. -57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -8. -17. -26. -33. -40. -48. -53. -57. -59. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) JOVA 9/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.37 SST (C) : Value: 27.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.11 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 47.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.09 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 3.25 Prob of RI= 13.7% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)