* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * KENNETH 09/19/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 101 92 84 70 59 51 45 40 36 32 30 V (KT) LAND 115 109 101 92 84 70 59 51 45 40 36 32 30 SHEAR (KTS) 10 15 17 15 14 16 13 17 17 17 23 18 23 SHEAR DIR 29 32 36 43 60 52 77 87 109 106 115 118 110 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 142 141 139 137 135 132 130 128 126 123 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -50.9 -51.7 -51.1 -52.1 -50.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 62 61 60 55 51 49 50 51 51 56 50 50 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -1 -3 -1 0 0 0 7 5 1 10 -1 1 850 MB VORT 35 49 53 75 84 77 83 101 103 109 88 112 122 LAND (KM) 2184 2206 2229 2248 2268 2309 2337 2277 2183 2077 1959 1845 1733 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.5 130.9 131.3 131.7 132.5 133.1 133.7 134.5 135.4 136.4 137.4 138.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 558 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 53 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 115 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -22. -28. -34. -39. -43. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -22. -34. -44. -52. -60. -66. -72. -77. -80. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -14. -23. -31. -45. -56. -64. -70. -75. -79. -83. -85. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KENNETH 9/19/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.26 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 27.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.74 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 3.16 Prob of RI= 12.1% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)